The energy transition requires vast amounts of critical materials — creating geopolitical dependencies that demand strategic attention. Commissioned by Greenpeace and executed together with Copper8, Polaris, and TU Delft, we analysed Dutch material demand for twelve critical materials across multiple scenarios. We identified system- and technology-level measures, within te bounderies of Greenpeace, that can reduce demand by up to 49% by 2050. By making sharp choices, it is possible to limit the demand for critical and strategic materials. For all materials, demand is significantly lower than the Koersvaste Middenweg scenario: for iridium this is 1.2% (KM: 2.3%), for neodymium 0.6% (KM: 2.1%), and for lithium 0.5% (KM: 1.3%). In a scenario with a new equilibrium and circular technologies (NECT+), in 2035, for seven materials will be needed than the relative share of Dutch energy consumption (0.4%).
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The energy transition requires vast amounts of critical materials — creating geopolitical dependencies that demand strategic attention. Commissioned by EZK and executed together with Copper8, Polaris, and TU Delft, we analysed Dutch material demand for twelve critical materials for the Koersvaste Middenweg scenarios, including all NBNL 2025 corner stone scenarios (contributed by Gasunie). The Dutch demand in 2035 as a share of global mining production (in 2024) is multiple factors higher than the Dutch share of global energy consumption (0.4%) for eight materials. This is true even under combined additional system and technology strategies.
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Hydrogen will play a key rol in our future energy system. To explore its market and flexibility in detail, we partnered with a consortium of national organizations to improve and expand hydrogen modelling in the ETM. This has given grid operators essential tools for future infrastructure planning and communication.
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The municipality of Emmen has the ambition to be climate neutral in 2050. Together with the municipality we created different pathways for achieving this goal by forging different scenarios for Emmen in the ETM and analyzing their impact on energy demand, production, flexibility and infrastructure. This enabled the municipality of Emmen to make well-informed policy decisions.
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The TYNDP scenarios are developed by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) and Gas (ENTSO-G) to assess how electricity, hydrogen, and methane systems interact across Europe. The ETM is used to model the demand side for every EU country.
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For the ‘National Plan future Energy system’ (NPE), the Ministry of Energy & Climate wanted to know the difference between hybrid or full-electric heating in the built-environment. We modeled extreme scenarios for the Netherlands, revealing demand, supply, and flexibility needs. This helped them guide their heating strategy.
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The province of Zuid-Holland wanted to asses its policy influence on future energy-infrastructure (pMIEK). Using the ETM, we modelled four scenarios per municipality based on their plans for district heating, transport, and industry. Using the resulting electricity demand peaks we could reveal which policies most affected infrastructure expansion.
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